PSL Weekend Recap
Downs v Pirates xG, xPts, post-game outcomes, and more...
Sundowns got themselves three very important points when they beat Orlando Pirates 4-1 on Saturday afternoon. The result opened a nine-point gap at the top of the table, although Pirates still have a game in hand on their rivals. Played at the same time as Richards Bay - CT City, the game was technically the first in the second half of the season. Let’s look at some of the numbers from the weekend.
Sundowns v Pirates: Post-match dashboard
The post-match dashboard incorporates some key stats, a shot map, an xG timeline, and a passing network. Pirates didn’t exert as much width as they normally do, forced to pass through the middle. Uncharacteristically, Downs did not have too many passes, but they mixed it up when they did, going long often and building through what looked like a Back 4. Hotto’s big chance in the first half was the best for Pirates (biggest circle below), but he sent it over. A goal here could have influenced things differently.
Win Probabilities
50% of the time, Downs win that game, with 2-0 and 2-1 the most likely outcomes. With Lucas Costa in the mood (2 goals from 3 shots (ex.blocks)), the fine margins were swayed even more.
Pass Table
What some have noticed is how Sundowns did not have much possession in this game. Being 2-0 up in the 30th minute helps, but even then, it does not fully explain the strategy. Post-lockdown (since we have this data available), this was the 20th time Sundowns led by 2+ at the break. But this was the 1st time they completed less than 100 passes in the 2nd half of a game (88).
Stellenbosch v Chiefs Win Probabilities
Three points for Chiefs against a direct rival for CAF places (make that six points if you include the home leg). 4 times out of 10, Chiefs would win this, but the draw (in particular, 0-0) was the most likely outcome (50%) based on how events unfolded.
AmaZulu v Marumo Gallants Win Probabilities
A big win for AmaZulu, which could have been bigger had they not blown some clear cup opportunities. 2-1 or 3-1 would be the scoreline here if events were simulated 10,000 times, with AmaZulu victorious 80% of the time.
