PSL Goalscoring Trends - November
Where have the goals come from?
The last international break of 2024 has just passed which gives us another opportunity to look at some interesting developments in the PSL so far. Just over 20%(50 games) of the league season has been completed. All teams have points on the board, all teams have scored and/or conceded at least one goal yet only one team has yet to lose a league game this campaign - the log leaders Orlando Pirates. On the other hand, pnly one team is yet to win a game - and that’s TS Galaxy. In the 50 league games played we have seen the following...
91 goals scored
72 inside the box (79% of the total)
19 outside the box (21% of the total)
Another 40 games are (scheduled) to be played before the turn of the year (31st December), bringing the completed games percentage to 38%. The second half of the season will see teams race to complete the other 62% of the campaign (along with the Nedbank Cup games and a March International break). A hectic 5 months of football action. Will this affect the quality of football and in turn the creation of chances and goals? Only time will tell.
One step back: Where do the shots come from?
Below you can find a shot map visual for all teams highlighting the shooting volume and accuracy of all 16 teams. Teams are ordered by shots taken to date. You may need to zoom into your favourite team.
League leaders Orlando Pirates are top of the log with a three-point gap. The Bucs have taken the most shots of all teams and have also created the most xG (11.75 xG). They are the only team to make it into double xG figures thus far. The schedule will get busier for them as they also compete in the CAF Champions League group stages during November, December, and early January 2025. In terms of accuracy, their 40 shots off target is the highest of all teams in the league and suggests a lack of conviction in key moments.
Despite the Cup final defeat, Sundowns have continued their ruthlessness in front of goal by scoring the most league goals (15) of any team. They are fifth highest for shots taken among of all teams, but the defending champions continue their extreme clinical finishing with a wild shot conversion rate of 23% (way above the 10% average in the league). It has already fallen 3% since the beginning of the October international break and could fall further in the weeks and months to come. Similar to Pirates, they will also compete in the CAF Champions League group stages.
Kaizer Chiefs, despite their early season struggles, have taken the second most shots behind their Soweto rivals. With the league average conversion rate current at 9%, the Glamour Boys’s sharpness in front of goal and defensively has cost them points in recent games.
In our October edition, we mentioned that teams such as Royal AM, SuperSport, Magesi, TS Galaxy were struggling to convert chances. A few other teams have joined them with the likes of Cape Town City FC and Marumo Gallants (6%) having a discouraging return on shot conversion. The league average rarely swings far from 10% (in world football) - but you need both volume and accuracy to climb higher up the table. For example, Golden Arrows were second in shot conversion last season (12%), but 15th for shots taken, and their low shot volumes neutralised the good finishing.
*Data correct until 25 November (before the midweek games).
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