This weekend, the Premier Soccer League saw its 100th game of the season played. The potential title race between Sundowns and Orlando has gripped both minds and narratives so far. But another (less appealing) narrative has been the lack of goals in the top flight. Overall, 189 were scored by Game 100, the joint-lowest-ever total at the 100-game mark in PSL history (also in 1996/97 and 2017/18).
A shot volume issue?
The initial assumption might be that PSL teams are playing defensively and that goals are scarce because teams aren't taking enough shots. To test this, we compiled shot data, and the results quickly revealed that this hypothesis doesn't hold. We have full data for five seasons since COVID-19, and this season ranks highly in terms of shots taken per game by all teams. Only one of the previous seasons saw more shots per game. If the quantity of shots isn't the problem, perhaps something else is.
Shots taken by PSL teams per season:
2022/2023 - 22.7
2024/2025 - 22*
2023/2024 - 21.7
2021/2022 - 18.1
2020/2021 - 17.7
Or a shot quality issue?
The concept of shot quality in soccer is not new. Accumulating more shots in a game or a season is pointless if most of them come from far out. You can analyze this from a zonal perspective, looking at the areas where teams are shooting from. A helicopter view at all teams below reveals significant gaps in the areas known for better shot opportunities. Similarly, many shots are being taken from outside the box, with clear culprits emerging.
Alternatively, if you zoom out and examine the average distance of shots, you’ll notice an interesting contrast: the top-scoring teams, Sundowns (ranked 3rd closest) and Orlando Pirates (ranked 3rd furthest), occupy opposite ends of the spectrum. Pirates have been particularly running hot with long-range shots, having scored eight goals from distance—more than any other team and more than they scored last season.
While there is certainly a reward for long shots (17% of goals this season have come from outside the box, the highest in the league in the past five years), one wonders if teams are paying enough attention to improving the quality of their shot selection.
A case study: Sundowns
Sundowns are third bottom in the list for overall shots taken, sandwiched between Chippa & Royal AM. We have to factor in the fact that they have played fewer games, but even in terms of shots per game, they are 5th bottom and one of five teams averaging less than 10 shots per game. The league leaders are not taking many shots for several reasons which can all be explored individually: they are a possession-based team, rarely trail in games (having been behind for just 30 minutes this season), they have clinical finishers, and, most importantly, they produce a high proportion of quality shots. Do they need the volumes?
Shot conversion rate = goals scored divided by shots attempted. Sundowns lead this across the board (24%) - not only is it the best in the division this season, it’s the best of any team in the last five seasons. Will it come down as the season goes on? Maybe. But for now, it’s working well.
In the xG bin charts, we’ve categorized all teams' shots into four groups:
Low quality
Moderate quality
Good quality
High quality
Sundowns may not aim too often, but a good proportion of their few shots seems to be carefully chosen. We can’t talk about the 24% shot conversion without mentioning the parallel - that 24% of their shots are in the moderate to high-quality range. Converting 1 in 4 shots is a ridiculously high number, but in prioritizing high-quality shots, not many are wasted. When your shot quality and shot distance numbers are good, volume becomes less important. The xG conversion scatter plot below shows just how clinical Sundowns have been, taking the highest-quality shots at the highest conversion (excluding blocks).
The PSL’s overall shot conversion rate is at a 5-year low of 8.6%, and Downs are making the most of an ineffective shooting league even if they are running behind their xG numbers. Maybe teams need to seriously consider their shot locations and cut out some of the more pointless shots they are making.
The rest of the PSL’s xG bins are below (Top 5 teams, Pirates, Polokwane, Sekhukhune and Kaizer Chiefs):
