In their benevolence, FIFA are releasing some free detailed data reports after every game through their Training Centre. In addition to what traditional data providers like Opta and Statsbomb would provide, FIFA have their unique metrics too. One of these, which we’ll explore in this piece is offers to receive. Unlike passes, tackles, interceptions which are on-the-ball events, this is an off-the-ball metric. What players do without the ball, or in anticipation of receiving it, provides a new layer of analysis and insight.

Offering to receive

“Offering to receive refers to the actions a player makes off the ball when their team are in possession. More specifically, the concept relates to whether the player’s intention is to receive the ball from a team-mate and continue or complete the possession phase.”

You will remember this from Matchday 1? (Inside voice: Of course, I do..)

Sithole requested the ball to feet from Williams, signalling for a pass. This was a deliberate action made in an attempt to receive possession. The hand signals were clear and obvious - give me the ball. Williams obliged, only for Sithole to be hassled off possession for Mexico’s opening goal. Regardless of what happened after, this qualifies as an offer to receive the ball.

Looking at offers to receive across the three Bafana games gives us a better understanding of how Bafana have approached each fixture - and “offers” us a glimpse of how Hugo Broos tried to control Bafana’s possession phases.

Game 1: Bafana 0-2 Mexico (11 June)

A frustrating performance and result. From the lineup, it was clear Bafana had opted for a conservative approach. The early goal, and two red cards did not help matters, and the numbers should be read with that context in mind. That said, Bafana made 247 total offers to receive the ball, with 29% of these in the defensive third. This was the game with the highest proportion of offers made so deep.

On a player level, Teboho Mokoena made the most offers to receive the ball, with Rayners second - another reflection of a creative-midfielder-less build up that never quite clicked. It was a tactical approach that did not pay off, yet it was only the first of three games and provided valuable lessons for all.

Game 2: Czechia 1-1 Bafana (18 June)

Bafana’s most possession-heavy game on the group stage (60% possession compared to 36% in MD1) - maybe an overcorrection, but one that paid off late on. They conceded another early goal, but this time had the personnel to play more of a possession-based game. The positive correlation between ball possession and offers is clear here. Bafana made 472 offers, nearly twice as many as the Mexico game (compared to 261 for Czechia).

Oswin Appollis made an incredible 119 offers, comfortably the most of any player on the field. Although he only received 30, this clearly demonstrated a different approach - offers still help create space and open up passing options between defensive lines. Indeed, 45% of offers to receive were made in the final third, the highest such proportion in our three games - Czechia’s reluctance to attack also helped.

Game 3: Bafana 1-0 South Korea (24 June)

The win over South Korea was enjoyable on many fronts. I chose the sleep five hours and wake-up-to-watch approach instead of the stay-up-all-night approach. My confidence in getting the win (on-the-field and against sleep) increased as the first half played on. Bafana maintained 31% possession in this win, their lowest % in any of the 12 World Cup games played since 1998. Correspondingly, only 189 offers were made by Bafana in this game.

Again, Oswin Appollis led the way (joint with Sphephelo Sithole) and another attacker Evidence Makgopa in third. While their possession figures mirrored MD1, Bafana showed a more direct approach when they had the ball. Ronwen Williams went long regularly, attempting the most line breaking passes among Bafana players (26). Against Czechia, that responsibility had fell to Teboho Mokoena (32), who was absent here. Interestingly, Williams did not complete a single pass to Thalente Mbatha or Sphephelo Sithole just ahead of him.

Players have always made offers to receive the ball. Now, we can measure these offers and their effectiveness. A player can have a quiet game on the ball and still be making a significant contribution off it. There is more to unpack - the location of offers, whether they lead directly to chances and goals - but that is a deeper dive for another day. If Bafana's run continues, we'll turn our attention to another FIFA metric - movements to receive.

*Data and images from FIFA Matchcentre.

Lt. Gillette: “This ship cannot be crewed by two men. You’ll never make it out of the bay.”

Jack Sparrow: “Son, I’m Captain Jack Sparrow. Savvy?”

In the first instalment of Pirates of the Caribbean, Captain Jack Sparrow commandeered a ship from the Royal Navy woth a simple plan - pick up a crew in Tortuga, then raid, pillage, plunder. Like any good captain, he knew that a ship was only as good as the crew on it. It was an unconventional crew that he gathered, but it worked successfully - every man had a role, that they executed to near perfection.

At the start of this season, Abdeslam Ouaddou joined an Orlando Pirates that had equalled the PSL record for successive second-place finishes. Armed with knowledge of the league, the club added new members to strengthen the squad. The mission was to blend this group into something greater than the sum of its parts. In May 2026, Pirates finally broke their 14-year league title wait, pipping rivals Sundowns to the Betway Premiership title in the final game week.

A key part of this triumph was how they utilised their squad.

Squad Management

This historic season was very close to extinction before it took off. Ouaddou, a Moroccan coach appointed following the departure of Riveiro, inherited a near faultless defence from his predecessor, but it was a tough start that tested the ideas behind the project. Having poured so much emotion and energy into the MTN8 final win, the squad was knocked out and sent crashing out of the CAF Champions League on a cruel October evening. As it turns out, that humbling defeat proved to be a divine intervention for the new Moroccan manager and his Pirates squad. The continental disappointment served as a reminder to the club that it had to learn to walk before it could run. Without the pressures of travelling the continent and constant playing in stifling conditions, the Buccaneers were now able to devote all their energies to the domestic front. In particular, the way they utilised their squad was key.

While there is no change in the number of players used (35 last season, compared to 33 this season), there was a big difference in how these players were rotated. Last season, Pirates made the third fewest changes to their Starting XI, while Sundowns made the most. This season, Pirates have made the third most changes to their Starting XI (47), outdoing Sundowns in this metric (46).

The Squad Usage Matrix visualises player age against the percentage of available domestic league minutes played. This visualisation segments the team into definitive age cohorts, plotting player minutes alongside their statistical frequency in the starting XI (indicated by the colour bar).

The Under-20 Developmental Margin

While no player under the age of 20 cleared the 50% minutes threshold, the appearance of Mbokazi (before moving to Chicago Fire) indicates a structured pathway for young players into the Pirates’ first team. With the Diski Team also having won the league, there should be opportunities for the club to bring youngsters into the mix next season.

Ages 20 - 24

The yellow-shaded column is where Orlando Pirates won the Betway Premiership. It is rare for a title-winning side to place their heaviest minute workloads on players under the age of 25, yet Pirates’ most trusted players occupy this bracket.

• Seema: Sitting comfortably near the top of the chart, clear of the 90% minutes-played mark. His dark green plot indicates he was a dependable figure in the defensive line-up.

• Mofokeng & Appollis: Both players hover right at or above the 80% minutes mark, deep in the upper-left quadrant. This positioning proves that the creative, high-volume shooting load of the team (203 combined shots) was carried by legs that could recover quickly without dropping intensity.

• Sebelebele (approx. 66% minutes): Rounds out a highly aggressive, youthful core positioned well above the 50% squad average baseline.

​​Ages 25 - 29

The light-blue column represents players typically at physical maturity. The distribution here is efficient, anchored by the ultimate outlier:

• Sipho Chaine: Chaine featured in every game and played every available minute of the league campaign.

• Thalente Mbatha: Sits right in the middle of over 50% used and in the prime age category.

• Patrick Maswanganyi: Plotted just below the 50% line at 28 years old. He started just over half of his 14/26 league games.

Ages 30+

The pink-shaded veteran quadrant shows players over 30+. Rather than allowing a squad to grow old together, Pirates limited their 30+ players to specialized, high-impact roles.

• Sibisi (Age 30): The primary veteran, clearing over 70% of available minutes to anchor the youthful Seema with defensive experience.

• Deon Hotto (Age 35): A physical beast and anomaly. Hotto defied traditional age curves, maintaining near 66% of available minutes with a high starting frequency (20/24 starts).

• Makhaula (Age 36): Positioned at roughly 42% of total minutes, his light-orange colour profile confirms that while he did not feature a lot, he started 13/16 league games when available.

The visualisation through the squad matrix shows that the structure of the club is logical. Most of the club’s total minutes are played from the 20 - 24 age range, the highest range, and 25 - 29, suggesting that most of the physical demands of the high-pressing system are shouldered by players who are entering their physical peak. Orlando Pirates did not just limp over the line and win a treble; they built a long-term data-driven structure that has the potential dominate this division for years to come.

Paid subscribers can see Sundowns and Pirates quad matrices below, and request similar matrices for any team.

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1. Clean sheets

While clean sheets are a go-to starting point, they should merely open the discussion, not close it. There is more to being a keeper than just stopping shots - organising your backline, offering a ‘third eye’ option to defenders, playing as a sweeper and building up play all matter. Some clean sheets owe more to defenders’ heroics than keepers, and some can be achieved without a keeper being tested 24 times this season, a keeper kept a clean sheet without facing a single shot on target. That said, keepers also deserve credit for pressuring attackers into bad/wayward shots. On many levels, the clean sheet argument can be picked at, but remains a common benchmark for goalkeepers.

Top five keepers for clean sheets in the league this season:

• 21 - Sipho Chaine (70% clean sheet rate - 21 in 30)

• 15 - Brandon Petersen (63%)

• 14 - Ricardo Goss (48%)

• 13 - Ronwen Williams (45%)

• 12 - Darren Keet (44%)

2. Frequency of goals conceded

Chaine conceded just 12 goals all season, with Petersen slightly behind on 13. However, Petersen played significantly fewer minutes after picking up an injury earlier in the year. Would he have conceded more goals if he played more? Would he have kept more clean sheets in the six games he missed? These are hypotheticals, but goals conceded per 90 levels the playing field. Minutes per goal conceded is a similar proxy.

• Ranking by goals conceded per 90:

  • Chaine: 0.4 goals per 90 minutes

  • Petersen: 0.54

  • Williams: 0.72

  • Goss & Keet - 0.9

• Ranking by minutes per goal conceded:

  • Chaine - 225 minutes for every goal conceded [one goal every 2-and-a-half games]

  • Petersen - 166 mins

  • Williams - 124 mins

  • Goss & Keet - 100 mins

3. Shot stopping

Saves remain a key measure for assessing goalkeepers, but even these have their limits. Save volumes (like many defensive metrics), depend heavily on opponent actions, and different teams prioritise different defending objectives. A team playing a high defensive line, for example, will likely win more offsides and concede fewer shots (i.e opportunities for the keeper to save). Yet, the quality of shots the keeper faces will mostly be high, given a high proportion of chances can be conceded on fast breaks.

• Ranking by saves this season:

  • 77 - Goss

  • 62 - Keet

  • 47 - Petersen

  • 46 - Williams

  • 40 - Chaine

• Ranking by save percentage (shots on target faced in brackets):

  • 78% - Petersen (59 shots on target faced)

  • 77% - Chaine (52)

  • 75% - Goss (102)

  • 71% - Keet (84)

  • 68% - Williams (62)

Most of these are fine margins. Before conceding eight goals in his last three games of the season, Williams was sitting on 76%, which fell sharply in seven days.

4. Aerial Ability

Beyond saves, how keepers perform under high balls is another metric to consider. The OPTA definition for a catch is simple:

• a high ball into the penalty area caught cleanly.

Again, opposition crossing habits will influence opportunities here. Teams may avoid too many high crosses when facing keepers they believe are good in the air.

• Most catches:

  • 39 - Keet

  • 21 - Goss

  • 19 - Williams

  • 14 - Chaine

  • 10 - Petersen

Petersen's injury clouds a lot. His rate-based numbers (63% clean sheet rate, 0.54 goals/90 and 78% save percentage) suggest he was the equal of Chaine in some metrics across the time he played.

5. Sweeping

A sweep is defined as any time a keeper anticipates danger and rushes off their line to cut out an attacking pass or close down an opposition player. For it to count, the keeper must advance at least to the edge of their area, react quickly, and face genuine pressure from an onrushing opponent.

• Ranking by accurate keeper sweepings (sweep accuracy in brackets)

  • 21 - Williams (91% keeper sweeper accuracy: successful sweeps divided by attempts).

  • 19 - Goss (95%)

  • 11 - Keet (92%)

  • 7 - Chaine (100%)

  • 6 - Petersen (100%)

7. On The Ball

The modern keeper is now considered an integral part of team build-up, capable of initiating attacking moves from the back. Williams even features in the top 10 players for passes completed across the league (including outfielders), with Chaine in the Top 25. Some game states at the World Cup may need good passing from the back.

• Ranking by successful passes (pass accuracy in brackets):

  • 1,104 - Williams (89% accuracy)

  • 850 - Chaine (84%)

  • 724 - Goss (67%)

  • 423 - Keet (62%)

  • 393 - Petersen (74%)

8. Errors

Between the five keepers, only Keet and Williams had errors directly leading to a goal - two each. The stat considers obvious mistakes attributable to a goalkeeper, not subjective calls like poor positioning or defensive miscommunications. All keepers had drops this season (“a high ball where the keeper tries to catch the ball, and gets his hands on the ball, but it drops from their grasp”), but even here, the margins are narrow.

Ranking these keepers by how often they drop the ball:

• 5 times - Keet

• 3 times - Chaine, Petersen

• 2 times - Goss, Williams

What is clear is that no single keeper dominates across every metric. Chaine leads on clean sheets and goals conceded, Petersen edges everyone on save percentage, Williams is in a class of his own with the ball at his feet and off his line, while Goss was the busiest of the options. That is part of what makes the Goalkeeper of the Season conversation difficult to settle, and why reducing it to clean sheets alone does a disservice to all the goalkeepers.

The bus isn’t just parked, it’s also guarded 24/7 by ADT.

Last season we looked at the most valuable ball progressors in the PSL, exploring Expected threat as a metric for measuring possession value among players. We dug into the definition, benefits and use cases of xT, and had a “leaderboard” for players who were adding the most value to their teams with the ball at their feet. Keletso Makgalwa stood out early in the season from our model. He would later go on to set a new post-Covid record for assists in a season, and equal the big chances count.

“Expected Threat (xT) is calculated by laying a 'value surface' over a football pitch to divide it into zones, where each zone has a value assigned to it based on how likely a goal is to be scored from that zone. Players can then be credited for moving the ball from zone to zone.” (Statsbomb blog definition)

A season later, the question is now: who can create in this new landscape? Like then, it is not just about which players are “creative” in the regular sense, but who has been able to threaten (with or without assists) in a defensive edition of the PSL.

The New Leaderboard

The chart below shows the xT per game that the most valuable ball progressors have added from their passes, carries and dribbles. Keletso Makgalwa is still up there, but the most threatening progressor this season (on a per 90 basis) has been Stellenbosch’s Asekho Tiwani. The young left back was brought into the club from Sundowns in January, seemingly as a replacement for Turan Manafov. The latter had been brought in by Stellenbosch from Azerbaijan at the start of the season through their data-led recruitment processes. Manafov led this chart when he was still in the league, and has since been replaced by Tiwani at the top - a seamless transition that suggests Stellies' left-back position is systematically set up to provide creative threat regardless of personnel. Siyabonga Ndlozi, Ronaldo Maarman & Deon Hotto round out the Top 5.

These are per-90 numbers, which compresses the differences - all 20 players here belong in the league’s top tier of threat providers. Also note, the more minutes a player accumulates, the harder it becomes to maintain high per-90 numbers, so there’s an inherent bias toward players with fewer minutes. This makes the presence of high-minute players like Hotto, Matuludi, Ndlovu, Makgalwa, and Rapoo even more impressive, regardless of their exact ranking. Anyone following the PSL this season will immediately recognise these names - the data backs up the eye test.

The rise of the left back

While the traditional “creators” like Keletso Makgalwa and Siyanda Ndlovu (ex-Mthanti) continue to dominate the high-value zones, we are seeing a new profile of player - more aggressive full-backs, climbing into the top. Last season, this list featured traditional #10s and flashy wingers at the top, with Makgalwa accompanied by Gaston Sirino, Sipho Mbule, Relebohile Mofokeng & Puso Dithejane at the summit. This time around, this leaderboard is dominated by full-backs. Four of the top-five (Tiwani, Manafov, Ndlovu, Hotto) have been deployed somewhat as left or right-backs. Indeed, seven of the Top 10 spent the majority of their time in a variation of this position. Is this a tactical evolution we're witnessing in the PSL, where lower blocks and double pivot midfields have congested central areas to the point that creativity must come from elsewhere?

xT is a signal of intent, valuing player contributions that don’t always result in a goal scored. Ultimately, these are the league’s most dangerous orchestrators. As we move into the business end of the season, they are the players that opposition managers will be planning to stop.

These are the players big clubs will be following closely when the transfer window opens. Matuludi, for example, is rumoured to be on his way out of Polokwane City. Wherever he lands, he will give that team an extra dimension going forward.

Laduma Analytics uses advanced data collection & statistical modelling to reveal hidden trends & patterns in South African football. Whether you’re a club looking to gain a competitive advantage, a media house seeking better stories, or a brand wanting to connect with football audiences through data, we can help. Get in touch: info@ladumaanalytics.co.za

Paid readers can see xT charts of Sundowns, Orlando Pirates and Kaizer Chiefs below, and request for any team in the comments below

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Lets briefly review the two midweek games…

Sundowns (2.2xG) 3-1 (1.72xG) Marumo Gallants

A game that was closer than the result looks, both with the eye test and the data. Sundowns dominated possession throughout the game, but Marumo Gallants enjoyed a few openings, mostly after their goal. It was not exactly a basketball game, but this is the closest we’ve been to one in over a year.

• 26 - total shots in this game, the most in a Sundowns home game under Miguel Cardoso

• 15 - shots for Sundowns, their joint-most in a home league game under Cardoso

• 11 - shots faced by Sundowns, the most they’ve faced in a home game this season

• 11 - shots faced by Sundowns, their joint-most in a home game under Cardoso (also v Pirates last season)

Ultimately, Teboho Mokoena’s well taken brace proved to be the difference on the night. The result took Sundowns to 50 points, making them the first team to the mark this season. The trendline below shows how they are coming into championship form at the right time. xPts still remains skeptical, placing Downs in second, as does xG Difference. But they have often maximised their talent to over perform long enough and delay the regression.

Golden Arrows (0.73xG) 1-1 (0.42xG) Stellenbosch

Stellenbosch remains unbeaten in the league since Gavin Hunt joined at the end of last year. It may only be seven games, but Stellenbosch are showing shoots of recovery on a season that looked gloomy for a while. Defence first seems to be the mantra for Hunt, whose team have conceded just four goals in seven games. Against Arrows, Stellies restricted their hosts again, while creating enough to win themselves.

1 - shots on target allowed by Stellies, their fewest in a game this season

40% - win probability for Stellies (19% for Arrows, 42% for the draw)

The rebuild under Hunt is gathering momentum, but they are not yet truly out of the hood. While safety looks certain, Stellies will obviously have loftier ambitions. A Top 8 spot will be the minimum for Hunt to extend his contract, and they are slowly converging with that path (yellow).

Yet, in all of this, the flaws in the two teams’ attacks may have been ignored.

Orlando Pirates

For Pirates, their defensive numbers have shown positive indications for a while. Last season, Pirates had 0.75xG conceded per game, which put them in first place in the league in terms of defensive solidity. In their best defensive state last season, they were as low as 0.4xG conceded per game, contributing largely to a record season start of seven consecutive wins. Yet, that tailed off as the season went on - a mid-season blip allowed Sundowns to maximise on the momentum built by the arrival of coach Miguel Cardoso. By the time Pirates’ defence was sorted again, it was too little, too late.

Two separate streaks of six consecutive clean sheets tell a story, echoed by the downward trajectory of the red line above. Not once have they crept up beyond 0.7xG conceded per game. As things stand, Pirates’ 8.6xG conceded is the best in the division (more in line with the actual seven goals they’ve let in).

Their attack has ticked over nicely as well. They’ve scored against every team they’ve faced except one (Sekhukhune, twice). Two blanks in 17 is their best return at this stage in 20 years. Pirates and Sundowns are neck-to-neck attacking-wise, with Pirates 26 goals (from 27.2xG) slightly below the champions’ 27 goals (off 25.9xG). You’d imagine a 1.23 xG underperformance isn’t a big deal until you consider the big chance stats.

In Relebohile Mofokeng and Oswin Appollis, Pirates have two of the best attacking players in the division. They are joint-1st in the league for big chances created (8 each), and the pair have created as many big chances as all of Kaizer Chiefs’ attack (16).

Altogether, Pirates have totalled 52 big chances (both created directly by the team and gifted by the opposition), but they’ve missed 40 of these. Only Marumo Gallants (21%) have a worse big chance conversion rate than Pirates (23%). Yes, Pirates are scoring but they’ve left enough goals on the field - if not to give them a superior goal difference, then to win some closely fought games (the Sundowns loss a case in point).

Kaizer Chiefs.

Chiefs’ defence, on the other hand, has improved massively. They surpassed their clean sheet total from last season within 10 games, which says more about how leaky they were last season. Until the second half against Stellenbosch, Chiefs had conceded the fewest goals in the Prem. They are the biggest improvers in defence across the last two seasons, down from a catastrophic 1.7xGA they were letting in per game towards the end of last season.

They’ve dipped below 0.5xG conceded per game for the first time in three campaigns, and even the attack has produced a high enough xG to merit a sustained xG surplus. Chiefs are managing to take 16 shots every game this season, and are limiting their opponents to just seven. Alongside Pirates (8.6xG conceded), Chiefs (8.9xG conceded) are the only two teams with single-digit xG against them.

The attack is where things start to fall apart, starting simply with lack of goals scored. 16 goals in 16 games is Chiefs’ second worst tally at this stage of a campaign - not a record you can build a sustainable title push with. They’ve been expected to score 23.7 goals based on quality of chances created, but have underperformed that by 7.7, the highest shortfall in the league. It puts them in the company of Siwelele (-7), Richards Bay (-6.6) as teams whose attacks have scored below expectation.

Trying hasn’t been the issue at Chiefs - they lead the league for shots taken. Rather, they are shooting from all the wrong places. The table below shows that only Chippa and Marumo Gallants shoot from a further distance than Chiefs.

They have gotten into the habit of settling for a heavy amount of low quality shots, and at 0.09xG per shot are comfortably below their title rivals. Indeed, they are in the bottom third overall. Taking speculative shots isn’t a bad thing on its own, and we’ve seen a fair share of wonder goals from Chiefs players in the last year. There are times where opponents sit so deep and taking a 3-5% shot is the best outcome of a move. But too often, Chiefs players pull the trigger when a few other teammates are available for higher quality opportunities. When your attackers are younger, that can be counted as a cost of inexperience. But in Silva (28) and Lilepo (29), Chiefs have prime-age strikers who should be wise enough to take better, healthier options.

Chiefs and Pirates’ defences have kept them in the title race, but that can only take you so far. An outstanding attack is the major piece of a title winning puzzle, something the teams need to figure out before Sundowns see the finish line.

Sundowns’ rolling xG visual can be seen by paid readers below, including the full xG table (with xG Difference, Expected Points etc), while other graphs can be requested by paid readers in the comments

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A season ago, Lucas Ribeiro and Iqraam Rayners pushed themselves towards respectable season totals (16 and 15 respectively), and the season before Rayners was also at the centre of the race, only edged by Tshegofatso Mabasa (16-15).

• PSL Golden Boot winners post-pandemic:

  • 2024/25 - Ribeiro (16)

  • 2023/24 - Mabasa (16)

  • 2022/23 - Shalulile/Mayo (12)

  • 2021/22 - Shalulile (23)

  • 2020/21 - Grobler (16)

This season, no player has reached 10 goals, and the alarm bells may be ringing. Yet, it is not uncommon for the 10 goal mark to be breached only in the second half of the season. Since 2019/20, only two players have scored more than 10 goals after 16 games (Grobler in 2020/21 and Shalulile in 2021/22). But, who will win the 2025/26 Golden Boot and how many goals should they be reasonably expected to score?

Sede Junior Dion

Sede Junior Dion has been a bit of a journeyman since joining the PSL in 2021. A season and a half at Marumo Gallants saw him score just eight in 35 games across all competitions. Two years at AmaZulu yielded 14 in 47, before a short spell at Marumo brought another three in 12.

The Ivorian is now enjoying the best season of his career, by a significant margin. Nine goals is already his best season tally, and we’re just past the halfway point of the season. The simple extrapolation would suggest he may double that towards an 18-goal total, but the underlying numbers urge a bit more caution.

Every other season, the PSL has a breakaway striker that scores for fun in the first half of the campaign, resurrecting the narrative around Collins Mbesuma’s record being broken. Every other season, these players are running hot on their Expected Goals tallies and fans & pundits alike get surprised when the inevitable plateau arrives.

Junior Dion is 2,5 goals ahead of his expected total at the moment, so a 13 goal season would be par. However, players can still over perform beyond the course of a season and go beyond their xG sum. Dion’s 28% conversion rate is high (his career average is 17%), but he’s been very selective with his shots, barely taking any outside the box. It’s not the highest conversion rate in the division but, is nearly double the league average for players classified as forwards that have scored at least one goal.

Bradley Grobler

One goal in eight games is scant return for a player that started the season so strong. For a season not hampered by injury as before (he’s only missed two games), he will be disappointed that he has not scored more goals. Yet, he’s been doing Grobler things - poaching, getting shots off only when needed, and converting at 28% - a five season high for him. All this has come in a team that has underperformed significantly over the last few months.

Grobler’s issues are more around shot volume, not conversion. Averaging 1.5 shots per 90 minutes may be a function of age (he is visibly less mobile), but the team/system also has a role to play. Grobler has averaged below 2 shots per game for the first time (since an injury ravaged 2022/23). This is down from 3 shots per game at SuperSport last season, a significant (33%) drop in attempts.

A 12 goal season would be par for Grobler, but he has the room for more. He is simply not taking enough shots (the other side of the selecting-shots-wisely coin), with only 1.8 per 90. In 2026, he’s played 4 league games and taken 3 shots altogether. Twice since the season restarted after AFCON, he’s left the field without taking a shot. But when he does, they can be lethal, as he averages 0.23 xG per shot.

The surprising part about this season’s Golden Boot race is that it features players outside the top teams. Pirates’ top scorer is a midfielder (Maswanganyi), Sundowns’ top scorer has completed one game since September, and Brayan Leon only has half a season to catch up. Meanwhile, Dion’s Golden Arrows are 9th, and Grobler’s Sekhukhune are 3rd having played more games than the two teams below them. When it comes to shot attempts, Arrows are 11th and Sekhukhune are 7th. Their teams simply don't create enough volume for them to pull away, and we should reasonably expect 14 to 16 goals clinches the Golden Boot.

Some headline numbers at half-time:

• The league saw 229 goals scored at the 120 game-mark, the lowest total ever at the halfway stage of a 30-game campaign.

• At 1.92 goals per game currently, this is the lowest goals per game ratio for any season in PSL history.

• Of the 25 penalties taken this season, only 15 have been scored. This 60% penalty conversion ratio is the lowest since we have full data available (2020+).

The Top 3 are really the Top 3

Conveniently for us, Pirates, Sundowns and Chiefs have played the same number of games (15). For the first time in a while, the top four teams are five points of each other having each completed half their campaign. 2020/21 is the last season where things were so congested at the top. Cast your mind back - Swallows were impressing as a newly promoted side and Mandla Ncikazi’s Golden Arrows had lost just one game at the halfway stage of the season. The SuperSport United of Kaitano Tembo, Bradley Grobler and Thamsanqa Gabuza were hot on Sundowns’ tail. Benni McCarthy’s AmaZulu were shaping up to push Sundowns well into May - indeed Usuthu were top of the table on the 1st of May, albeit having played a few games more.

It was the best of (recent) times.

This season, we could be on course for something similar, if not better. Orlando Pirates and Sundowns have set the pace, alternating days at the top of the table. Despite only scoring a goal per game this season, Chiefs have stayed within touching distance, thanks largely to their solid defence. Results wise, there are three distinct mini-groups on the table.

• 1st to 4th are separated by five points

• 5th to 8th are six points apart

• Then a five point break, before..

• 9th to 15th are separated by five points

• Magesi anchor the table with 11 points

The Expected Points table paints a somewhat similar picture. There may be different characters and positioning within the subsets, but its still Pirates, Chiefs & Sundowns just ahead of Durban City. Five or so teams follow with 20+ xPts, then a lower tier group until Chippa at the bottom. What stands out here is how Magesi & Richards Bay aren’t as bad as they look, while AmaZulu seem like the biggest over-achievers.

There are many ways to crack the xG egg and measure team quality - Expected Goal Difference is another, and arguably one with more predictive value. With xGd, there is a distinct chasm between the Top 3 and and the next six teams. When you consider the dominant narratives, Orlando Pirates are the best team the league, Sundowns are at their worst state in a long time, and Kaizer Chiefs are the plucky dark horse simply pushing for Top8. Yet, they have put together broadly similar results and in underlying numbers. While Chiefs’ defence has held firm, and kept them in the conversation, their goalscoring is way behind expectation - an underperformance of 7.6 means they’ve left more goals on the field than any other team this season. Pirates are also a few goals short than expected, but 1.67xG underperformance won’t cause Ouaddou sleepless nights. Sundowns are more or less par for goals scored, but have conceded nearly four more than expected. Come the end of the season, the three are all projected to be a few wins or goals of one another.

Where the title could be won and lost?

How the dominoes ultimately fall could be heavily influenced by the remaining games between the sides in their mini-league. Tellingly, Chiefs v Sundowns and Sundowns v Pirates have already ended in draws. They were not exactly thrillers, with the two matches averaging three shots on target per team, and a combined 2.58xG. Are these “title deciders” symptoms of a low-scoring, cagey nature of the entire season?

• Games to be played

  • Pirates v Sundowns (18 Feb)

  • Chiefs v Pirates (28 Feb)

  • Pirates v Chiefs (25 April)

  • Sundowns v Chiefs (6 May)

The team that gets the edge in this mini-league may potentially break away from the rest. These fixtures could be classic “title deciders”, but don’t expect fireworks. We could see more tight margins and teams playing not to lose. Will the old adage “defences win titles” ring true come May?

The full xG table is available to paid subscribers below.

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• The average gap between 1st and 8th on this day in the last four seasons has been 16 points. This time around, it’s just 7 points. While Sundowns’ relatively slower start is a factor, one can argue the other way round - Sundowns’ slow start has revealed how competitive the rest of the league is.

• In the last four game weeks (i.e the whole of November), only one team (Orlando Pirates) managed to win back-to-back league games.

• The unpredictable pattern of the season continued this week - the four teams that won their mid-week games had all dropped points in their last game before AFCON.

A short review of the games.

TS Galaxy (2.8xG +1 pen) 2-0 (0.53xG) Marumo Gallants

The Rockets bid farewell to a few players in the mid-season break, but kicked off the restart with a comfortable 2-0 win over Marumo Gallants. No team has won more points since the start of November than Galaxy, and this was another three points well deserved.

The xG chart and shot maps show just how dominant they were against Marumo.

• 90% - win probability for Galaxy in this game (2.5% for the opponent)

• 15 - shots for Galaxy, their second most in a game this season

• 24 - points from 15 games, their best ever return halfway through a PSL season.

Sundowns (0.78xG) 2-0 (0.7xG) Orbit College

Sundowns returned to the top of the table following a 2-0 win over Orbit College. The Brazilians have CAF commitments to turn their mind to this weekend, and over the next month. They have played two games more than Pirates as things stands, but are scheduled to be two games behind by the time the teams meet next month.

On the ball, Miguel Cardoso’s men were rarely troubled, regularly finding themselves in the final third. A brilliant finish from Arthur Sales broke the deadlock, before debutant Brayan Leon headed home the second. Downs were efficient, but not spectacular, and Orbit were rather wasteful with their own openings having chosen to surrender possession.

25% - ball possession for Orbit College here, their lowest in a game this season

0 - shots on target for Orbit College (the first time this season they end a league game without an attempt going on target)

Kaizer Chiefs 2.21xG 1-0(0.52xG) Golden Arrows

Chiefs ‘ last two games before the AFCON break were goalless draws that saw them fall off in the title race. They bounced back in familiar style, winning yet another game 1-0. 65% of the time, Chiefs win this game, so they were good value for their efforts in this one.

• 10 - clean sheets for Brandon Petersen, the first keeper to play 10 games without conceding this this season

• 10 - clean sheets for Brandon Petersen, the first Chiefs keeper in PSL history to reach 10 clean sheets in the first half of a 30-game season

• 5 - wins by a 1-0 scoreline for Chiefs this season, more than they did throughout last season (4).

• 2014/15 - the last time Chiefs had more 1-0 wins in a full campaign (10 then).

For media partners looking to tell better data-driven stories on the local game, please get in touch via info@ladumaanalytics.co.za 📧

Key stats

• This is the eighth time Bafana progress past the group stages

• Bafana won two group games at an AFCON for the first time since 2000 and for only the third time overall (W2 also in 1996)

• Aubrey Modiba created five chances against Zimbabwe, the most by a Bafana player at AFCON since 2008 (Opta)

Offensively, Bafana were decent, netting five goals in three games. As per Opta Jabu, this is the 1st time in 25 years Bafana have scored five goals in the group stages, equalling the national team’s record for group stage goals in a single edition of AFCON. Only five teams scored more goals than Bafana in the groups (Nigeria, Algeria, Senegal, Morocco and Tunisia), and four of them are among the favourites to win the tournament outright, according to Opta predictions.

Defensively, the headline numbers are not as impressive, with four goals conceded in the group stages. Notably, Bafana did not keep a clean sheet in the group stages - only the fourth time this happens at an AFCON (after 2006, 2008 and 2015). However, this is the first time Bafana manage to progress to the next round without keeping clean sheet. It’s a statistic that has to change against Cameroon on Sunday, if Bafana are to have a better chance of reaching the last eight. These totals provide an overview, but let’s trace the journey game by game to see how we got here.

Game 1: Bafana 2-1 Angola🇦🇴

Bafana opened their campaign with a 2-1 win over Angola. Despite a difficult first half, Bafana managed to open the scoring through Oswin Appollis. Angola got a deserved equaliser 10 minutes before the end of the first half, but Lyle Foster ensured Bafana’s improved second half counted with a winner late on.

• Non-penalty xG: 🇿🇦 0.44 - 0.89🇦🇴

• Shots: 🇿🇦 10 (4 on target) - 10 (4) 🇦🇴

• Big chances created: 🇿🇦 1 - 2 🇦🇴

• Touches in the opposition box: 🇿🇦 14 - 23 🇦🇴

Game 2: Bafana 0-1 Egypt 🇪🇬

An eventful game that saw Bafana concede a very soft penalty to Egypt just before the end of the 1st half, and then get denied one of the own at the end of the second. With 74% possession in the second half, it was all Bafana in this game, and the equaliser would have been well deserved.

• Non-penalty xG: 🇿🇦 0.75 - 0.33 🇪🇬

• Shots: 🇿🇦 18 (6 on target) - 6 (3) 🇪🇬

• Big chances created: 🇿🇦 1 - 1 🇪🇬

• Touches in the opposition box: 🇿🇦 24 - 8 🇪🇬

Game 3: Zimbabwe 2-3 Bafana 🇿🇼

Bafana effectively knocked neighbours Zimbabwe out in the final group game, despite a late scare. A draw would have been enough for progress coming into the game (and even defeat may not have mattered in the end), but the boys gave their all to ensure they progress without any permutations needed.

• Non-penalty xG: 🇿🇦 0.72 - 1.28 🇿🇼

• Shots: 🇿🇦 16 (9 on target) - 10 (3) 🇿🇼

• Big chances created: 🇿🇦 4 - 3 🇿🇼

• Touches in the opposition box: 🇿🇦 25 - 24 🇿🇼

Zones of control

The image below proved a high-level summary of Bafana’s zones of control in the group stages. This highlights, where on the pitch Bafana were touching the ball more than their opponents in open play.

• Purple Zones: Areas Bafana dominated with more than 55% of total touches.

• Pink Zones: Areas where opposing teams gained more than 55% of total touches.

• Grey zones: Areas where possession as more equally contested.

Last 16 preview

Cameroon needed to come from behind to overcome Mozambique in their final group game. The Indomitable Lions registered a goal at least once in all their matches, but two of their four goals were opposition own goals. More appealing to Bafana, they have kept just one clean sheet in their last eight AFCON matches (v Gabon). The Cameroonians are favoured to progress by the odds and the Opta supercomputer (60% to Bafana’s 40%), but it should be a close encounter.

Bafana will take inspiration from the class of 1996, who beat Cameroon 3-0 in the only previous encounter between the sides at AFCON. For those who consider it significant, the overall head-to-head record is in Bafana’s favour - this will be the 10th meeting between the sides, with Cameroon winning just once (D5 L3).

Images from Opta Analyst.

The good news for fans is that things are shaping up nicely for a rather exciting battle this season, something we haven’t seen since 2019/20 when Chiefs led the table until the final day.

While last season started off like a title race in Q1 (Sundowns took control on MD8), the games-in-hand Pirates banked on made it look closer than it actually was. The Brazilians accumulated 15 points more than Pirates from the time Miguel Cardoso took over in December, meaning the 12-point margin at the end of the season was a fairer reflection of what was in essence, another cakewalk.

An opportunity for Pirates?

Sundowns’ recent draw vs Siwelele meant Pirates will hold on to top spot a little longer than last season, at least until mid-January (or their 13th game). The upcoming CAF break ensures Pirates will top the standings at Christmas, something that has not happened in 21 years. The Buccaneers opened the season with back-to-back defeats, but have since picked up points at championship pace. In the last 10 games, they have accumulated 28 points, the highest tally for a Pirates side across a 10-game spell in PSL history.

The points trendline above shows how a flat start to the season (bold black line is actual points) has been transformed in the last 10 games. A trendline beyond the green (champions path) shows they are accumulating points at the rate of champions. The only concern may be a widening gap between xPts (dotted line) and actual points. Over time, these two lines tend to be closer, but history has shown that talent levels can be enough to drag over-performance across the finish line.

Sundowns

For the first time since 2019, Sundowns will not be top of the table at Christmas. Coincidentally, 2019 was the last time the PSL had a title race go down to the wire. Indeed, 28 points from 13 games is Sundowns’ lowest total at this stage since 2019 (they had 25 points at this stage in Pitso Mosimane’s final season). Last season, they were 10 points better off at this stage (and 11 points better off the season before).

It is arguably unfair to compare this Sundowns with the previous two iterations - those were relentless points machines (to quote Jose Riveiro). While their results trendline (bold) has slid off the champions path in Q2, their performances line remains parallel to Pirates’. In 2019, the last time they had such a “bad” start, they were nine points behind Chiefs after 13 games, but still recovered to win it. A 2-point gap at this point should not be cause for alarm, although the competition is different. Where Covid-19 gave Downs a chance to reset and overhaul the leaders in 2019, will AFCON2025 offer the same lease of life?

What is happening to Chiefs.

At the end of August, Chiefs were joint-level on points at the top of the standings, separated only by goal difference from Sekhukhune United. Since then, they have won two games in seven, dropping 11 points from 21. As such, their trendline has plateaued since September, but crucially never below the Top 3 line.

While results have not been forthcoming, the underlying numbers are impressive. Chiefs lead the league for Expected points per game, plus their xG difference of 0.9 per game is also the best in the league. The Expected Points line has remained stable even with mixed results - it is actually hard to separate the three teams on xPts. If xPts are anything to go by, these three teams and surprisingly, Durban City, are neck and neck in underlying numbers. There is barely a piece of paper to separate them.

Sekhukhune: The Dark Horse

Sekhukhune are the other side that can not be excluded from the conversation. Like Pirates, they benefit from a domestic focus, and do not have to add CAF football to an already congested calendar.

Their time on the ‘champions path’ has recently tapered off, but their Top3 ambitions are still intact. Babina Noko have been consistent, maintaining a performance level aligned with CAF qualification, even if they ran hot at the start of the seaso, outpacing their underlying numbers.

So, do we have a title race?

There is still a long way to go and a lot will happen before May. It feels as if the post-AFCON period will be its own “second” league race. Will Pirates continue their form or will the break disrupt their momentum? Will the break help Sundowns regroup? Can Chiefs find a way to convert onfield dominance into goals and points. For now, we can just enjoy the uncertainty - bringing a competitive tension the PSL has not seen in a long time.

For teams looking to maximise the mid-season break with in-depth team reports and opposition reports, clubs and analysts are encouraged to get in touch via info@ladumaanalytics.co.za

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Average goalkick distance

This time, and for better context, we start by observing the average goal kick distance for each team as a baseline. Polokwane City and Richards Bay come out as the most “direct” teams with the highest average goal kick length this season, almost 50 metres on average. Like a rugby team, this would suggest gaining territory is the priority, over controlled build up.

On the other end of the table, Sundowns (unsurprisingly) have the lowest average goal kicking distance of all teams, typically kicking just 20 meters on average. Using Ronwen Williams as the deepest playmaker seems to be working for Sundowns - only 10 outfield players in the league have attempted more passes than him. Golden Arrows, now led by the former Sundowns coach Manqoba Mngqithi, are just edged out by 15 centimetres on average.

Where do teams send their goalkicks?

While this information is interesting as a baseline, it’s merely the tip of the iceberg. DurbanCity, for example, may average 39 metres per goalkick, but this dos not show the variation or distribution. Breaking down the data to examine end locations per zone is worth looking at separately. And its only when you dig deeper, that each teams’ mix per game and field zone brings more insight.

Mapping out the exact end locations of each team tells us a bit more about their style (much more than a simple mean). Again, Sundowns and Arrows are the teams most likely to take their goal kicks in their own box, doing this 50% of the time. Polokwane City and Richards Bay will go long with 2 of every three goalkicks. Meanwhile, AmaZulu rarely take their goalkicks down the left. Whether this is intentional or a response to pressing triggers will need a deeper look.

Game by game analysis

A third level to look at goal-kick strategy involves game-by-game analysis. Some teams may have the talent levels to always play short based on philosophy regardless of the opposition, others have to adjust approaches to get marginal gains. If you compare last season’s analysis, you will see notable changes in approach at Golden Arrows, Marumo Gallants, Orlando Pirates and TS Galaxy. Coincidentally (or not), these are teams who changed coaches in-between and possibly made changes in their buildup philosophies.

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Progress Reports

Looking at the league table can give us a glimpse into which teams are doing well, but it has limitations for tear on year comparisons. PSL teams often have inconsistent fixture loads at any point beyond August, making points totals hard to compare. We could compare teams to where they stood exactly a year ago (the week starting 18 November) - and observe Pirates were 1st, Sundowns 2nd, Stellenbosch 3rd, Sekhukhune 4th, and notably AmaZulu were 14th and TS Galaxy 15th.

Yet, in doing that we face another problem - fixture differentials were already at play - Pirates, Stellenbosch and Chippa team had more games than others, but it was only seven at this time last year - some teams had four. This is before we even factor the Royal AM games that had to be expunged into the equation. To bridge some of these limitations, we’ve decided to compare xG per 90 minutes standings for both attacking output (xG for) and defensive resistance (xG against).

• Red: last season 🔴

• Blue: this season 🔵

Offensive progress: Magesi, Sekhukhune United, Kaizer Chiefs

From an attacking perspective, Magesi have the biggest season-on-season increase in chance creation quality per game up from 0.7xG to 1.1xG per 90. That said, the context is a low baseline from last season, where they were the worst attacking team in the league. Sekhukhune are another example of a team whose attacking output has improved, despite dropping points in recent games. They have become a difficult fixture for most of the big team . Kaizer Chiefs should also be encouraged by how their campaign has started, now averaging 1.54xG per 90 compared to 1.29xG last season. Overall, they are on course for a Top3 finish based on Expected Points (a game-by-game extrapolation of the underlying xG values) - though they remain marginally short of the numbers historically needed to sustain a championship run.

Offensive regress: Stellenbosch, Marumo Gallants, Orlando Pirates

On the other hand, Stellenbosch’s struggles in front of goal are clear both on the actual standings and their xG per 90 output. They are currently the joint-lowest scorers in the division with seven goals from 12 games, and are also down nearly half a goal worth of xG per 90 compared to last season. Marumo Gallants and Orlando Pirates join them among teams recording significantly lower xG per 90 this season. With Pirates, decline in attacking output is offset by improved defence which we see below - one could argue the former is a (deliberate tactical) consequence of the latter.

Defensive progress: Chiefs, Sekhukhune, Magesi, Pirates

Kaizer Chiefs (0.4xGA suppression per 90), Sekhukhune (0.23xGA), Magesi (0.16xGA improvement) are the defences that have significantly restricted the quality of shots they are giving up compared to last season. 12 games in, Chiefs have already equalled their clean sheet total from the whole of last season (7) - further substantiating their defensive improvement. Pirates were the best defensive unit in the league last season (0.74xG conceded per 90), and they’ve retained that defensive status, with improvement. A league best 0.57xGA allowed per 90 paired with a league best 6.6 shots conceded per 90 has resulted in a league best 5 goals conceded. 10 games in, Pirates’ points are on the champions path, thought xPts has them slightly lower down.

Defensive regress: Golden Arrows, Stellenbosch, Chippa Utd

Golden Arrows, Stellenbosch and Chippa Utd are three teams who have taken the biggest steps backward defensively. Their xG conceded per 90 has taken a knock, with Chippa United’s case particularly concerning. Last season, Chippa’s defence was 4th worst on the xG table, but their actual goals conceded was solid Top 6 level - a combination that kept them afloat. This season, however, they boast the worst xGA numbers, and the second worst goals conceded record (both goals and non-penalty goals conceded) - an unhealthy combination of poor performance and results.

Critically, none of these metrics are reasons to cheer or panic as standalone stats - we need to dig deeper into the why by juxtaposing xG numbers with shooting profiles and playing styles, isolate non-penalty and set-piece related xG among other things to get a full picture. Plus, this compares a full season baseline with just one-third of this season - one third vs one third would be preferable, it’s hard to do due to inconsistent fixtures etc. Hence a Sundowns, for example, are notably absent because they haven’t “improved” on any of the above, but that’s mainly to do with how high they set the standard last season. They’ve actually maintained their 1.57xG per 90 despite mixed results, with 0,75xGA & 0.76xGA pretty similar defensively. That said, these stats can be useful as a starting point helicopter view of teams’ progress.

For more granular analysis (including in-depth single-team or opposition reports), PSL clubs are encouraged to get in touch via info@ladumaanalytics.co.za 📧

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Let’s review some games briefly

Kaizer Chiefs (3.1xG) 4-1 (0.6xG) Orbit College

Chiefs are up to third place on the table, following their 4-1 win over Orbit College on Tuesday evening. It’s the first time in over 4 years that Chiefs put 4+ past an opponent in a league game (since beating Chippa 4-0 in October 2021 under Stuart Baxter).

The field tilt chart shows how Chiefs started both halves on the front foot, and were rewarded on both occasions (though slightly later in the 2nd half). Mdu Shabalala shone, with two goals and two assists, but the overall performance deserved the result.

• 65% - Chiefs’ field tilt on the day (the proportion of time they spent in the opposing third)

• 3.1xG - Expected Goals for Chiefs (their highest xG in a single game this season)

• 4 - big chances created by Chiefs (1st time they have more than 2 in a game this season)

• 10 - big chances for Chiefs this season (40% of them came in this game)

Golden Arrows (0.8xG) 3-1 (0.99xG) Orlando Pirates

That’s 22 points from 24 for Pirates since they lost their opening two league games of the season. With two games in hand on Sundowns, Bucs fans will be confident they can narrow the gap before the two teams meet again in January. Yanela Mbuthuma (2) & Nkosi Ndaba (1) were the scorers, bringing the total number of Pirates’ scorers to 11 this season, more than any other team. They’ve conceded in back-to-back league games, but their defensive numbers are still solid.

• 4 - shots conceded by Pirates v Arrows (their fewest in a game this season)

• 66 - shots conceded by Pirates all season (the fewest of all teams)

• 20 - shots on target conceded by Pirates this season (the fewest of all teams)

• 5 - goals conceded by Pirates (the fewest of all teams)

• 5.7 - xG conceded by Pirates this season (also the lowest of all teams)

Sundowns (1.02xG) 1-0 (1.03xG) TS Galaxy

Sundowns, meanwhile, are top of the table after their 1-0 win over TS Galaxy. 25 points from 12 games sounds average, but it’s still a solid return (only 7% of teams in PSL history have accumulated as much). The momentum chart, which gauges the ebb and flow of the game, shows Sundowns spending a lot of time in the Galaxy third (69% field tilt). Yet, Downs struggled to create meaningful chances inside the box. Based on quality of chances, Downs win this game 31% of the time, but TS Galaxy would be the most likely winners (a 38% chance based on a 10,000 game simulation).

• 10 - shots from outside the box for Sundowns (their most in a game under Cardoso)

• 0 - big chances created by Sundowns in this game

• 3 - times Sundowns have ended a game without creating a big chance this season

• 3 - times Sundowns ended a game without creating under Cardoso last season

Focus turns to the Carling Knockout semi-finals this weekend, and Bafana’s international friendly with Zambia next weekend, before league action resumes again on the weekend of the 22nd/23rd of November.

Are you a club seeking performance insights, or an agent needing player profiles? Maybe you are a media house or marketing agency needing unique data-driven stories for the football market - we are here to help break down and analyse the first 100 games of the PSL season. Get in touch during the international break by emailing info@ladumaanalytics.co.za

Consider two teams:

• Team A’s xG totals in five games are: 1.4, 1.6, 1.5, 1.3, 1.7

• Team B’s xG totals in five games are: 0.5, 3.5, 1.0, 0.5, 2.0

Both teams have an average xG of 1.5, but Team' A’s output is more consistent, while Team B’s output swings wildly from match to match. Relying on the mean or per-game stats can hide the truths about a team’s volatility, so the next step is to analyse the spread and distribution of match-by-match data. Enter Variance…

What is variance?

“Variance is a statistical measure of how spread out a set of data points is in relation to its mean (average). It quantifies the extent to which individual values in a dataset tend to differ from the mean.”

High Variance: Data is widely spread out, suggesting volatility and/or inconsistency.

Low Variance: Data is tightly clustered around the mean, suggesting consistency and predictability.

This is the formula, but we won’t bore you with the details.

Applying variance to PSL teams’ attacks

Analysing all 16 teams’ match-by-match data could be a tricky task. But that is precisely what box plot visualisations allow us to do. In one image, we can get a glimpse of how teams are able (or unable) to maintain stable, repeatable systems that consistently create high-quality chances. In a sense, this can be a tool for judging teams’ tactical stability.

The box plot below shows Expected Goals output for every team in every match so far this season. Each dot is a data point representing a team’s xG total in a game. The visual provides three crucial metrics at a glance:

• 1. The Box (Inter-Quartile Range - IQR)

  The grey box represents the middle 50% of the team’s performances. A tight box indicates a highly consistent performance output; a long box is the opposite.

• 2. The Line inside the Box

  This is the Median xG, usually a better measure of a team’s typical output than the average.

• 3. The Whiskers

  These show the extreme range of results for each, highlighting the maximum (green diamond) and the minimum (bottom line with dot).

For example, Sundowns is the first team in the graph. 50% of their matches produce between 0.8 & 2.1 xG (IQR); 1.8xG is the median for Sundowns’ attacking output; 0.3xG was their worst game (v Chiefs) and 4.1xG their best (green diamond).

Top 4 focus

Sundowns (1.7xG per game), Sekhukhune, Orlando Pirates and Kaizer Chiefs (all 1.5xG per game) are the most consistent teams in creating high-quality chances this season. It’s no accident that these four teams occupy the top four league positions.

Sundowns: Mean xG: 1.7 | Median xG: 1.8 | IQR: ~1.3xG

While Sundowns lead the league on overall xG, their longer box (an interquartile range of approximately 1.3xG) suggests dramatic swings in attacking output to start the season. The 4+ xG demolition of Richards Bay remains a massive statistical outlier (though the optimist may argue it shows what Sundowns can do on their best day). More concerning is that there have been three games this season in which Downs were restricted to less than 1xG - that’s as many times as it happened throughout last season under Miguel Cardoso. They even have two games with less than 0.5xG. It’s hard to predict Sundowns’ next performance given the above, but the high median (1.8xG per game) suggests they are still the best attacking team, dealing with the new tactical adjustments after the departure of the best player in the team & country.

Orlando Pirates: Mean xG: 1.5, Median xG: 1.5 | IQR: ~0.8xG

Pirates have one of the most fascinating profiles in the league. Their worst performance (0.7xG) is better than most teams on their best days - they always find a way to create high-value openings. Yet, an upper limit of 2.2xG is the lowest ceiling among the title contenders, which is precarious. They have not blown any teams away with great attacking performances - only once this season have Pirates scored more than one non-penalty goal in a league game. But do they need to? Under Ouaddou, Pirates have been served by a tactically conservative and defensively organised approach. Three months into the campaign, they have equalled their PSL club record for six consecutive league clean sheets. He may only whisper it indoors, but this box plot reveals a profile of a coach who prioritises structural stability & defensive shape over attacking aggression.

Kaizer Chiefs: Mean xG: 1.5, Median xG: 1.4 | IQR: ~0.8xG

Kaizer Chiefs also stand out with the tightest box among the top teams. 50% of their attacking performances fall within a very narrow range (0.5xG - between 1.2 and 1.7xG). Even on their worst performances, they are always “leaving with something” (in xG terms). The narrow IQR suggest a system that is consistently producing chances - the only problem is that the output is consistently mediocre. Chiefs still take the most shots in the league (a proxy for chances created), but their quality disappoints - Chiefs are 3rd bottom for big chances created. In fact, only 4% of Chiefs’ chances this season can be considered big chances (the lowest ratio in the division).

Sekhukhune Utd: Mean xG: 1.5, Median xG: 1.3 | IQR: ~0.8xG

Early-season pacesetters Sekhukhune are also showing a considerable spread in xG output - a long distance between their worst performance (0.4xG) and their best (3.2xG). Their interquartile range (about 0.8xG) suggests significant swings in output, but not as wild as Sundowns. High variance for any of the teams may also suggest wildly differing tactical adjustments depending on opponents - sitting deep and compact in selected games, then opening up and all out in others. That said, the “horses for courses” approach - while pragmatic, may also suggest tactical insecurity.

At the lower end of the table are teams like Marumo Gallants, Richards Bay and Siwelele, all face dual threats - not only are their boxes tight, they are also at the lower end of the spectrum. Averaging 0.4 - 0.6xG per game, these teams may be consistent, but it is at the wrong end.

We’ll revisit this at the halfway stage of the season to see how things have moved. When evaluating teams, it’s important to look beyond “improving attacks”, scoring more goals or creating more chances per game or “finding form”, but rather to ask:

• Is the team’s median xG rising? (i.e the whole box is shifting upwards, not growing bigger).

• Is the IQR getting tighter? (A smaller box indicates consistency)

• Are outliers becoming less frequent? (reducing dependence on exceptional performances or players)

Later in the season, we can also focus on defensive variance, the other side of the coin. Box plots remove the noise and focus on the message, answering the question every coach has - can we do this again next week or next month? Is that an expectation or a hope? The answers to predictability or volatility are all there in the grey box.

Laduma Analytics uses advanced data collection & statistical modelling to reveal hidden trends & patterns in South African football. Whether you’re a club looking to gain a competitive advantage, a media house seeking better stories, or a brand wanting to connect with football audiences through data, we can help. Get in touch: info@ladumaanalytics.co.za

What is field tilt?

Put simply, field tilt is a metric that measures the ratio of a team’s final third touches compared to total final third touches in a game.

Formula: Field Tilt = A team’s final third touches ÷ Total final third touches in a game × 100

Example: Say a PSL game has 100 combined final third touches and Team A has 80, while Team B has 20. Team A has an 80% field tilt [80 ÷ 100 x 100].

It’s a simple formula, but it can be a powerful proxy for understanding territorial control and dominance by a team in a match (from a quantitative perspective). Like any metric, it is not perfect and will have to be used in conjunction with other metrics to get a fuller picture.

Examples

To help illustrate this point further, let’s look at the three midweek games in the PSL. What makes these interesting to use is that they had wildly different outcomes - a drab 0-0, a textbook 1-0 win (the most common scoreline in the PSL) and a chaotic 4-3 thriller. The visuals tracked the field tilt across each game, and we used the Savitzky–Golay filter to smooth out some noise (or else we’d have a spiky, unreadable chart).

Kaizer Chiefs posted a 65% field tilt, with sustained attacking third pressure, mostly in the second half. They camped in Siwelele’s defensive third for periods - dominating attacking territory - even if the possession figures (55% - 45%) don’t fully reflect that.

Pirates’ 1-0 win was more authoritative on many fronts - 64% possession to 36%, more than double the shots, five big chances to zero and a commanding 71% field tilt. The real surprise is how they did not win more comfortably, despite overwhelming the opponent.

The 3rd game of the evening was a seven-goal thriller at Athlone Stadium in Cape Town. Arrows edged both possession and field tilt, though the teams were hard to separate on goals (4-3), xG (2.3-2.2) and shots (6-5).

Yet, from the above, one can also see how Arrows’ field tilt spiked when trailing (or how the Stellies’ tilt decreased when protecting leads). Field tilt swings can also show us if teams drastically change how they play when ahead or trailing.

Qualitatively, a higher field tilt is not inherently good or bad, and doesn’t say a team player well or poorly. Context matters. For example, some teams might only plan to have limited possession (say 33%), but enjoy 50% field tilt, suggesting efficient ball progression into dangerous areas despite less time on the ball. Less tilt is from an intentional approach, and is not a symptom of being dominated.

How can it be used

Beyond revealing attacking intent and dominance in matches, field tilt also has tactical implications. It can be used to identify in-game swings in momentum, break down opposition strategies and in pre- & post-match team analysis. More importantly, it should be used as a complimentary to other metrics and video analysis because, as a standalone, field tilt has limitations - quantity of touches alone is not as valuable as quality of touches, teams that depend on direct transitions may not have (or need) as many final third touches to get to goal, and it can undervalue low-block teams whose threat comes from efficiency, not territorial dominance. More compact defences can enable some teams to have quicker direct transitional attacks, meaning they reach the final third quickly when they regain possession.

In future

One can also have a table of overall field tilt for teams in a season, and the more attacking teams would be top of the table in this metric because they have more of the ball in attacking areas. A team like Sundowns is known for sustained possession in the final third. Likewise, it can be an interesting way to explore the change in a team’s territorial profile over time or how coaching changes affect this.

Individual teams will need to look at the relationship between field tilt and results - one cap won’t fit all. Do you generally win more often with a higher tilt? Does lower tilt suit your counter-attacking identity? Are your transitions effective enough to compensate for less territorial control? And more

For PSL teams, these are questions worth answering, and the answers are hidden in the data. To explore field tilt analysis for your team, get in touch via email: info@ladumaanalytics.co.za 📧

The league table (as a data point itself) is starting to look more familiar - Sundowns, Sekhukhune and Orlando Pirates occupy the CAF places. Chippa, Magesi & Orbit College are in the bottom 4. There are surprises in seeing Stellenbosch so low, and Durban City so high. But the Expected Points (xPts) table, crudely put, can help us see what the table ‘should look like based on each team’s underlying numbers.

“Opta’s expected points model simulates the number of goals scored in each match using the expected goals (xG) value of every shot. It then simulates the outcome (win/draw/loss) 10,000 times per match. Each team’s expected points are calculated based on how often they win, draw, or lose across those simulations.”

It’s not a perfect science, as xG data doesn’t include other contextual factors, like game state or periods of threatening possession that don’t end up with shots taken. Yet, it’s still a decent measure of how teams performed so far this season. By comparing a team’s actual points tally against their xPts, we can identify which teams perhaps have been lucky or unlucky so far.

The Overachievers

Sekhukhune United stands out as the league’s chief overachiever. Sitting third with a strong 20 points, their xPts tally is a much more modest 15.9. This massive difference of +4.1 points suggests Sekhukhune has been punching well above its weight. They have won six out of nine league games to date, but the last three games have seen a 90th-minute winner, an 80th-minute equaliser to salvage a point, and a 1-0 defeat - as if the numbers are already starting to catch up.

TS Galaxy (+3.9) and the KZN sides Golden Arrows and AmaZulu (both +3.4) are other teams running hot. Yet, a team like Golden Arrows may deliberately invite pressure and concede chances on purpose (waiting to pounce on breaks). This would mean they are happy to concede high xG as a feature (not a bug), and the expected points table doesn’t fully take that into account.

The Underachievers

On the flip side are the teams whose poor point tallies belie their efforts and underlying metrics. These clubs are creating the necessary chances to win or draw games, but are failing to convert them, costing them crucial points. Based on this, Magesi should feel the most aggrieved. Despite being in the relegation zone (15th) with six points, their performances have been strong enough for 8th/9th place, with approximately 12 points. That near 6-point (negative) difference between their actual and expected points is the largest of all teams in the league.

Likewise, Siwelele will feel they deserved more than the seven points that see them 12th on the log. Statistically, they’ve left five points on the field - 8th or 9th would be par for their efforts. Stellenbosch, sitting in 14th (-3 difference), will also feel hard done by; the additional three points would put their standing more in line with their performances. Durban City is the interesting anomaly in that its league position is largely an accurate reflection of its output (15 points vs 15.04 xPts).

Little may change in the lead-up to AFCON, but we will conduct a similar analysis in the second quarter of the season to see how it all shakes out.

The full xG table, including xG, xGA, xGDiff & xPts of all teams, is available to paid subscribers

Read more

With the September international break and the last round of league fixtures behind us, it’s a good opportunity to take stock of how some teams have performed in the opening stretch of fixtures. Sundowns, Chiefs and Pirates are the first set of teams we will focus on - all have had a stop-start beginning to their campaigns. The latter two were forced to postpone league matches due to their CAF commitments, with Chiefs chasing a spot in the Confederation Cup group stage and Pirates fighting to qualify for the Champions League. Sundowns, on the other hand, partly avoided that particular headache for now, having kept their league schedule largely on track.

How tough was each start?

Before a ball was kicked, our fixture difficulty rankings suggested that Chiefs were handed one of the toughest starts, while Pirates and Sundowns faced moderately testing runs to open the campaign. Between mid-September and the October break, that reversed with Chiefs and Pirates playing fewer league fixtures and less challenging games. The question now is: how have each of these sides measured up against those early expectations?

Kaizer Chiefs – Shaky

It’s a bit difficult to judge the current mood at the Chiefs. They started the season well with four wins and a draw, which saw them collect 13 points and sit second on the log table (behind Sekhukhune United). Their best start in over a decade generated a lot of excitement, but since the September international break, it’s been a bit chaotic both on and off the field. Their performances of late have stirred memories of the disorganisation that, paradoxically, defined much of the past five seasons. No team won fewer points in September (yes, they only played thrice), but even on a points-per-game basis, Chiefs were 5th bottom in the last month, with only two points collected from a possible nine. That said, the August form was so good that overall, they are still collecting points at a rate that would place them within the Top 3.

Orlando Pirates - Settling
For the Buccaneers, the September International break ended with a Cup triumph as they became the first team to lift the MTN 8 trophy four times in a row. Despite playing only two league fixtures (again due to CAF qualifying rounds), they won both convincingly and are currently on a 5-game win streak in the league, as well as a club record equalling 7-game win streak in all competitions, stretching back to August. Juxtaposing their current form and performances with history, the Sea Robbers are collecting points at the same rate as previous PSL winners (on average).

Sundowns - Crisis, what crisis?
It hasn’t been all plain sailing for the defending champions so far this season. They are not dominating the league as they have in previous campaigns, already having drawn three games and lost one. With Sekhukhune Utd losing their last game before the October International break, Sundowns will stay top going into the run-up until the November International break.

For Masandawana, it was a case of business as usual: play the games and collect points as fast as possible ahead of the others. While some may say they are a shadow of their former self in seasons gone by, Masandawana’s current points trajectory may be worryingly ominous for some.

Part 2 of this will focus on other teams.

The visual attached represents an alternative league table based not on actual points won, but on what teams could have “expected” to earn based on the quality of chances they created and conceded. This reimagining of the league allows us to question whether teams are riding their luck, underachieving, or performing exactly as expected. Moreover, it has better predictive value than simply looking at the normal table.

The Overachievers: Chiefs and Sekhukhune Riding the Wave

At the top of the actual log standings sit Kaizer Chiefs and Sekhukhune United, both on 13 points after five games. Chiefs, remarkably, have yet to concede a single goal. Their defence has been water-tight, but the xPts model can tell us how tight they have actually been. Based on their xG and xGA, the Chiefs’ efforts have been worth 9.39 points, equating to an overachievement close to four points.

Sekhukhune United find themselves in a similar position. With eight goals scored and only one conceded, they sit joint-top, but their xPts tally of 8.94 points indicates they are also slightly ahead of where the data suggests they should be. Like Chiefs, a lot will have to go their way for them to sustain this level of “efficiency” - both attacking sharpness and defensive solidity remaining elite (rarely happens over a season).

Strugglers and Underperformers

At the other end of the scale, several teams have reason to be worried. Chippa United are bottom of BOTH the actual table and what others have referred to as the “justice table”, with just one point and an xPts tally of 2.6. Their defensive record is alarming; 10 goals conceded in 5 league matches. Their xGA of 7.51 is also the worst in the division. Golden Arrows, Stellenbosch FC, and Marumo Gallants also find themselves adrift. All three sides show negative gaps between their expected and actual performances.

Orlando Pirates: The Quiet Contenders

If there’s one team that can feel aggrieved with their current position, it’s Orlando Pirates. With nine points from five games, they’re not far off the pace, but the xPts model suggests they should be sitting top with 9.9 points. Their xG of 7.7 and low xGA of 2.31 are both the best in the division, pointing to a side at a championship-winning level. While their finishing has left them with ‘only’ six goals, the underlying numbers show they may just be the most balanced outfit in the division right now.

The Surprise Package: Siwelele FC

Few would have pegged Siwelele FC as a side punching above its weight. Despite scoring just three goals and picking up only four points in reality, the xPts model gives them a far more flattering 9.06. Their xG of 6.22 suggests they are creating enough to score double what they’ve managed, but poor finishing has cost them dearly. If they can sharpen up in front of goal, expect Siwelele to climb the log table soon.

The Bigger Picture

The alternative table highlights the fine margins that define football. A blocked shot, a goalkeeping error, or a missed chance can swing matches and league positions drastically. While teams like Chiefs and Sekhukhune may currently look like runaway leaders, the xPts model hints at possible regression. Conversely, Orlando Pirates and Siwelele FC appear to be sleeping giants, waiting for results to catch up with performances. As the season unfolds, the tension between expectation and reality will only grow. If this alternative league table is anything to go by, the 2025/26 Betway Premiership is set to be a rollercoaster, with twists and turns beyond what the scoreboard alone can reveal.

Four teams (Durban City, Kaizer Chiefs, Marumo Gallants and Sekhukhune) have opened with maximum points from their two opening games, while three teams (Orlando Pirates, Richards Bay and TS Galaxy) have started with zero points from six. But which of these teams can point to the fixture calendar for “context”?

Importance of a good start for title-winning & safety

Only two PSL teams have won the title after losing their first game of the season (1996/97 Manning Rangers and 2007/08 SuperSport United). Of the 29 previous PSL champions, 22 have started the season with a win (76% of title winners). However, no team has ever won the title after losing its first two games of the season.

At the other end of the table, 160 teams have won their opening game of a PSL season, and just 4/160 of them have finished bottom of the table in that campaign (2012/13 Black Leopards, 2016/17 Highlands, 2019/20 Polokwane and 2021/22 Baroka). That’s a 98% safety rate if you win the opener. Moreover, 53 teams have won their first two games of the season, and only one has ended up at the bottom of the table (2019/20 Polokwane City), also a 98% survival rate.

Who has a tough start?

We used the Opta Power Rankings to measure the ease and difficulty of each team’s opening schedule. The Opta Power Ranking is a global system that assigns a score to domestic football teams on a scale of 0 to 100, with higher scores representing stronger teams. For instance, Liverpool is rated 100, making it the best club in the world. Al Ahly is rated 83.5, ranked 108th globally and first in Africa. Sundowns, with a rating of 82, are the best team in South Africa and the 4th best on the continent etc.

Based on these, Stellenbosch have been given the toughest start in the league of any club. To face all four trophy winners from last season in the first month of football - Chiefs (Nedbank Cup), Magesi (Carling Knockout), Pirates (MTN8) and Sundowns (league) is a tough hand. They’ve already dropped points in the first few games, and could find themselves in the bottom half of the table by the end of Game 5.

Chippa United, Magesi and Kaizer Chiefs are the other teams with tricky starts, with their average opponent rating above 73. One commonality they all share is facing Sundowns in the first five games, and either Stellies or Pirates as well. Chiefs will be happy with six points from six against sides that finished in the Top8 last season (even though they didn’t). A return of 10+ points from the opening five games is within reach, something Chiefs have only done once in the last eight campaigns. The last time they did so, they went on a title race that came short only on the last day (2020).

Who has an “easy” start?

Sundowns and Pirates have mild starts to the season (neither “easy” nor hard), so there may be some concern within the Bucs’ camp that they are yet to pick up a point before fixtures get harder. Likewise, TS Galaxy will be concerned by their start - they are seen as having the kindest start to the season based on opponent strength (an average of 68.7 in the Opta rankings with two new sides in their opening roster). Golden Arrows, Polokwane City and Siwelele also have kind starts to the season, and will be keen to build some momentum early on. Last season, these rankings had SuperSport as having the toughest start after 5 games. Two wins in five were the start of a tough season, in which they ended just one goal away from the playoffs.

We’ll tweak this as the season goes, tracking which teams have a tough Q2 or month after the international break, etc.